Europe's Looming Earthquake. What It Means for Arab Nations and the Future of the Levant

Europe's Looming Earthquake. What It Means for Arab Nations and the Future of the Levant

In this very important article, we will talk about the seismic reality and probability of larger earthquakes occurring and where they might occur according to the seismic cycles adopted by geology and tectonic stratigraphy.

Four days ago, there was an earthquake in the Syrian region, specifically in the Hama and Homs region, with an intensity of 5.3 on the Richter scale, followed by a second one with an intensity of 4.3 two hours after the time of the first earthquake.

The earthquake occurred on the branches of one of the main faults of the Dead Sea fault. Its length is approximately 1000 km. Imagine how big this fault is it is huge. The earthquake did not occur on a main fault except on a secondary fault of the main faults of the Masyaf al-Ghab branch.

This earthquake was felt strongly because its depth was about 10 kilometers, meaning we can call it superficial, and the reason why people heard explosions or vibration sounds is as a result of the earthquake being close to the surface of the Earth.

When there is a crack in the rocks, they explode due to the intensity of their tolerance of thermal pressure, and when they are close to the ground at a depth of 10 kilometers, we get a sound similar to the sound of an explosion.

In other words, imagine that you have a type of solid stone that you put in a furnace at a temperature exceeding 1000 degrees Celsius. This rock traps huge amounts of heat and tries to expand, but it does not find space and explodes, so its sound appears like the sound of an explosion. Here we are not talking about a single rock, we are talking about cliffs of rocks.

The first thing is that the expected earthquakes, according to all scientists, on the Levant faults may witness tremors, for example, 5.9, and the tremors in the Levant may reach Richter 6, which is the highest degree and is not destructive, meaning it will not be like what happened on the East Anatolia fault.

• But here the highest degree is expected, meaning that it reaches 6 Richter, and this is unlikely, but we can see it at 5.5 or 5.6 Richter. This is possible, and if it comes to 6 Richter, it will be in a short time.

• Thus, the faults or their earthquakes will be moderate, especially for example in Jordan and Lebanon, and these areas are five or five and a half, or it may come to Six Richter.

• As for the length of the Dead Sea Fault, it is 1000 km long. There is no way to tell people that there are no larger tremors or larger or smaller tremors, but as for its branches inside the Levant, the highest of them may be 5.5 Richter and not destructive.

• Regarding the possibility of a larger earthquake occurring or inciting other faults, it is possible to incite them, but it is also possible to reach a magnitude of 5.5 or 5.6 Richter.

• The most important thing is that we do not fear tremors that may reach a magnitude of 6 Richter, which is the worst thing expected and does not lead to the collapse of buildings, but they may be damaged somewhat if the tremor lasts more than 20 seconds.

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But our people in the Levant and other than the Levant, pay attention and take care of the buildings after any earthquake occurs. Check directly the foundations of the building, from the cameras to the columns to the foundation to everything if there are any serious cracks.

• Seeking the help of engineers after the tremors to check the technical condition of the building, whether it has been damaged, and what are the treatment methods. If no damage has occurred, then stay in your homes.

• The biggest recommendation to all of our Arab nation is that contractors and real estate trade owners have some conscience in these earthquake zones that need to adhere to the seismic standard code to ensure that buildings do not fall.

As for the Red Sea Fault, it is in a divergent movement that can reach 7 Richter, and this is far from the Levant, but its fracture or displacement system is divergent and not collisional, meaning a strong earthquake will occur, but it will not cause the damage that occurred in Turkey, God willing.

We now move to the reality of Egyptian earthquakes. We have an epicenter in Dahshur, and we also have an epicenter in the Gulf of Suez. It may create some earthquakes with a maximum intensity of Richter 5, which does not cause concern. Also, the buildings must be preserved.

• The biggest shock that Dr. Ali Al-Eis expects is the Hellenic Arc and the southern European region. This region means we have the island of Crete and there is a fault in the Azores Belt that crosses to the Azores Islands opposite the Portuguese.

• This seismic belt is off the island of Crete. Dr. Ali Al-Eis expects that the Turkish Aegean Sea, along with the Crete Islands, and the entire southern regions of Europe, could experience an earthquake of up to 7 Richter.

• This is a fact and this is something within the seismic cycle and it is not certain. What is the probability of an earthquake?

• Dr. Ali Al-Eis expects that the rate of occurrence of an earthquake is only 10%, and 90% of the earthquakes will not occur because there is no way to predict.

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But it is the probability of seismic cycles that every, for example, 250 years, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 Richter occurs on the Azores Belt. It can happen, or nothing can happen. Or there may be several tremors, the highest of which has an intensity of Richter 6.

• As for talking about waves, Dr. Ali Al-Eis explained that for waves to occur, they need an earthquake exceeding 7 Richter and to occur in water.

• As for the average, it is possible to generate tsunami waves, but the highest is 3 meters, with a depth of 1 km on land. This is the highest for the Richter 7 earthquake, depending on the location of its occurrence.

• The countries that could be harmed if a tidal wave occurs are Libya, Egypt, and Palestine, and there are parts of Algeria that will suffer minor damage, meaning that its waters can enter the land at a depth of 1 kilometer. This is the worst scenario.

• Dr. Ali Al-Eis explained that an earthquake is not inevitable, but it shows the real picture so that we have an idea about the issue.

But there is no information saying whether there is an earthquake or not. However, the seismic cycle or incitement movement on the Hellenic Arc is very large, as the island of Crete and the Aegean Sea in southern Europe are the most exposed and likely to cause earthquakes.